Despite some recent easing, food prices remain elevated for U.S. consumers, driven not by fresh tariffs but by lingering effects of the pandemic, weather events, supply-chain disruptions, and rising production costs. Seasonal produce cycles and regional demand can impact reefer rates which can also contribute to the price you pay for food.

According to the USDA’s latest Food Price Outlook (May 2025), overall food prices are expected to climb about 2.9% this year—roughly in line with historical averages—but still higher than desired. Food-at-home prices (groceries) should rise 2.1%, while food-away-from-home (restaurants, takeout) may increase about 4.0%. The projection interval for grocery inflation spans from 0.3% to 4.0%—a wide range underscoring ongoing uncertainty.

 

Looking Back (2020–2023)

So it’s not great, but let’s put things in perspective. From February 2020 to late 2024, grocery prices jumped an eye-popping 21.7% while restaurant meals surged 28.5%—leaving paychecks struggling to keep pace. Further, food inflation grew roughly 25–27% between 2019 and 2023, driven by global supply strains, extreme weather, higher wages, and elevated fuel prices. The respite of mild increases in 2024—averaging 2–3%—felt significant after such steep rises.

 

So, Is Relief Here?

Well…sort of. A 2–3% rise is milder than the double-digit spikes seen during the pandemic, but it still eats into household budgets. And not all food is feeling the same pressure:

• Eggs: USDA forecasts a dramatic surge—About 40% higher in 2025—due to the lingering effects of avian influenza.
• Beef & veal: Expect a 6.6% rise, hampered by drought‑shrunken cattle herds.
• Pork & poultry: Projected to increase modestly or even stabilize—pork down slightly by 0.2%, poultry going up 2.1%.
• Dairy: Cheese, milk, and butter are set to climb due to higher feed, labor, and global demand.

 

What About Summer Cookouts?

Barbecue costs perfectly illustrate this trend. Rabobank’s BBQ Index shows that hosting a 10-person cookout for the Fourth of July last year cost $99—a $2 increase from 2023, and 32% higher than in 2019. This includes essentials like beef, chicken, soda, beer, chips, and ice cream. Meat, especially beef, now accounts for about two-thirds of total expenses.

For 2025, we can expect similar—or slightly higher—costs, depending on beef, poultry, and egg prices.

As we gear up for summer picnics, it’s worth remembering that $99 per 10 people is sadly the “new normal.” It’s a long way from the $73 average in 2018. However, while last year’s cost was a record-high, it was still about 5% below 2022’s sticker shock.

 

The Bottom Line

All in all, food prices have cooled from their pandemic-era peaks, but they remain elevated, especially for animal proteins and eggs. Be prepared for quintuple-digit grocery bills to feed extended families. Planning, substitutions, and savvy shopping can help trim costs, but inflation’s impact is still very much on the plate.